Continuity and Change, the imponderable and unpredictable.

Continuity and Change, Predictions and Imponderables

General Raul Castro’s recent absence from the funeral of an important comrade from the Sierra Maestra days generated lots of speculation about the general’s health.  

In the essay we publish below historian and noted author Jaime Suchlicki looks at challenges, continuity, and change and “after Castro.”  

“Barring the imponderable or unpredictable, rapid change is not likely,” he says.  

There are two predictions we can make: Raul will be expected to attend many more funerals this year, and in Oswaldo Paya’s memorable phrase “the night will not be eternal.”