Regime Prepared for Fidel's Demise

October 30th, 2006 | The Miami Herald
by Frank Calzon

October is coming to a close, but Fidel Castro hangs on. His regime is now as ready as it ever will be to deal with the unthinkable: Cuba without Fidel.
Newspaper obituaries have been updated and require only a date, time of death and perhaps a comment or two from Gabriel García Márquez and other such luminaries.

The world believes that El Comandante is on his deathbed. Yet he has dodged the reaper before. His has been a life of caution, ruthlessness, smarts and luck. There is a small chance that he will recover and disappoint enemies calling attention to his crimes as well as friends who have concluded that it's time for him to go.

Imagine: The most feared man in the history of the island is now old and sick, sedated and hooked to a battery of the latest medical technology. Relatives are gathering.Then imagine that in the twilight of his mind, the aged dictator no longer feels tired and is no longer old. He is barefoot, riding the brown pony his father gave him for his seventh birthday. He is at the edge of a creek that flows through the forest near Birán. Falling in and out of consciousness, he is in mid-air with a slam-dunk on the basketball court of the Jesuits' Belen Preparatory School.

Then, he is fleeing with a rifle, leaving others to die, be imprisoned and tortured after a failed attack on Batista's army barracks. He has no regrets as he runs. He must save himself for History -- for the Revolution to come. Then the reality: People he doesn't recognize are at his side. He is cold. Dalia Soto del Valle, his wife of more than 30 years is whispering. He is bewildered, why is this middle-aged woman kissing him on his forehead.

Slipping into another dream, he is talking with Arnaldo, a brave man, tough as nails. Arnaldo was a country hick when he joined the Revolution, risking his life to protect Fidel. Now he is a general, back from Africa where he was a splendid battlefield leader of Cuba's expeditionary forces. Too bad, he's been making jokes about the commander-in-chief and carelessly telling people that Raúl has been covering up narco-trafficking through Cuba. For such disrespect Arnaldo has been sentenced to die.

He could commute the sentence, but people don't understand the heavy burdens of leadership. El guajiro has grown too big for his breeches. So what if Arnaldo is popular. The more popular, the more dangerous he is. Faced with disrespect and disloyalty, a leader does not hesitate. General Arnaldo Ochoa must die.
The Comandante needs rest. Only brother Raúl and Fidel's wife -- Cuba's unknown, unseen ''first lady'' -- are allowed in the room.
Hugo Chávez has called. Another wave of thoughts engulf the failing leader, ``What might I have done if I had been born in Venezuela with its oil reserves and I stood up to the Yankees. If Gorbachev had listened to me, he would still be in the Kremlin. If it weren't for our Revolution, Cuba would have no dignity. Cubans are lazy and ungrateful, but we are an example to Bolivia, to North Korea, to Iran, to progressives all over the world. We are not Costa Rica. We are not Spain. We are not Chile. We defeated the Miami mafia.''

Someone adjusts the pillows. ``Why are they holding my hands? I am tough, I am in one piece. It is 1992, and I am before the Congress of Communist Youths. Let me remind them about the vices of prerevolutionary Cuba. They must give me credit. I deserve credit. I remind them: `Today, women are not forced to sell themselves to any man. Those who do it, do it voluntarily. We can say that these women are the most educated and healthy prostitutes in the world.'

'My father, the old Spaniard, used to say, `It is better to have a live dog than a dead lion.' Why am I thinking about these things? Who is the dead lion? Who is the live dog? I need to rest . . .

``The crowd is applauding in Revolutionary Square. I'll raise my hand. Raúl is at my side. Arnaldo and Celia are at my side. We are a happy family. Now all together, loud and clear:
``Socialism or Death! Victory is ours!''
It is too late. Imagine, across Cuba a new reality is taking hold: Death is final. Cuba awaits a new dawn.

Frank Calzon is Executive Director of the Center for a Free Cuba, a non-profit organization based in Washington, D.C., that promotes human rights and democracy for Cuba.